Why Leeds Might Be Best Positioned to Regain Promotion

Relegation is a massive hit for any football club. No team wants to be relegated not only given the financial implications, mainly due to lower broadcasting revenue, but also through the psychological and reputational impact on the organization and fans. Relegation can be the beginning of a massive period of struggle and uncertainty about the future of a club given these consequences. For example, teams such as Sunderland, Wigan, Derby, Bolton, Hull and a vast number of other clubs have been relegated and have not yet been re-promoted to the Premier League with some even being relegated again as far down as League One. A Southampton employee recently said to The Athletic that “Relegation is like being punched in the face 100 times before having your head chopped off”.

The introduction and evolution of parachute payments has provided teams with a platform to rebuild post relegation and soften the financial hit of relegation, which should theoretically help them to be in a better position than other teams in the Championship to gain promotion right after being relegated. This has been seen with clubs such as Watford, Norwich and Fulham, who have often bounced up and down between the Premier League and Championship and Burnley and Sheffield United who were relegated across the past 2 seasons but have now regained promotion.

With the last weekend of the 2022/23 Premier League season approaching, Southampton have already been relegated after 11 seasons in the Premier League with Leicester and Leeds looking mostly likely to join Southampton in next season’s Championship. Heading into the final matchday, 538 gives Leeds and Leicester a 95% and 82% chance of going down respectively. For both these clubs relegation would be a massive hit given their recent successes, history and brand. However, Leicester is likely to be favorites to bounce right back up (alongside Leeds), Leeds may be best positioned to gain immediate promotion back to the Premier League rather than Leicester or Southampton and here is why.

Southampton Mismanagement and Lack of Strategy

A recent article by The Athletic has brought to light many issues Southampton is currently and has been facing, especially under their new ownership. These issues include divisions amongst executives, also amongst players, massive scouting and recruitment issues, lack of a clear strategic direction and key staff members leaving the club including:

o Joe Shields – former Head of Recruitment

o Matt Crocker – Director of Football (joining US Soccer)

o Matt Hale – Academy Director

o Alex Kleyn – Lead Data Scientist

o Toby Steele – Managing Director

Clearly for Southampton, before getting it right on the field, it must be gotten right off the field with these divisions, organizational structure holes and vacancies filled with a cohesive, effective and bought into strategy across the organization that also allows for effective scouting and recruitment. This could but is also not likely to be a one season turnaround, which could make it difficult for Southampton to immediately gain back promotion to the Premier League in 2023/24, even with the parachute payments.

Leicester’s recent success and ability to recruit higher profile players may hurt more than help

Leicester City got promoted into the Premier League at the end of the 2013/14 Championship season. Surprisingly, pulling off one of the greatest moments in sporting history, the club won the Premier League in 2015/16. Leicester has been a mainstay in the Premier League since the 2014/15 season, playing in the UEFA Europa and Champions League and also winning an FA Cup while competing for European places season after season. This has put Leicester into one of the top Premier League clubs after the Big 6, which has also allowed them to and pushed them to recruit higher profile players, build a new training ground and spend more on staff and club operational costs. The club is now spending more than it ever has and the financial consequences of relegation will hit hard with these expenses that the club has undertaken to try and disrupt the Big 6. This is not helped, especially in the case of relegation, by the fact that Leicester experienced a £12 million fall in revenue in 2021/22 with their losses tripling to £92 million. The parachute payments will aim to soften the hit but with a dramatic increase in costs and losses over the past few years to compete in the Premier League, it won’t all be covered. Additionally, many players such as Wilfred Ndidi, Dennis Praet, Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, James Maddison, Boubakary Soumare, Ricardo Pereira, Harvey Barnes, James Justin, Youri Tielemans amongst others are sure to leave the club with Leicester possibly facing the most turnover of players of the 3 clubs that end up being relegated. This is also given not only the profile and abilities of these players, but their wages, which are naturally higher given their profiles and abilities. Leicester has the 7th highest wage bill in the Premier League and between players wanting to leave to remain in the Premier League and the need to lower their wage bill dramatically, Leicester will have less of a foundation in their squad working with than Leeds may have.

Based on the situations of Leicester and Southampton, Leeds may be best positioned to get promoted back to the Premier League in the first attempt. Leeds in fact has the 2nd lowest wage bill in the Premier League which will help to mitigate the impact of the financial hit of relegation alongside the parachute payments. This will in fact only be helped by the clause in every player’s contract at Leeds which will see a 50-60% wage decrease in the case of relegation allowing for these wages to fall overnight, again mitigating the financial hit for Leeds. The issue for Leeds here is where certain players will not stay on these wages and play in the Championship. Players such as Illan Meslier, Robin Koch, Luis Sinisterra, Patrick Bamford, Rodrigo, Marc Roca amongst others are likely to leave the club. However, it is also possible for the turnover of players to be less than the other two clubs, which would allow Leeds to have a stronger, more cohesive core to attempt promotion successfully in their first season in the Championship. With a loss of £37 million, which is almost 3x less than Leicester (helped by a revenue increase of £18 million), Leeds is clearly in a much better place financially to be successful in their first attempt at promotion.

However, for Leeds to capitalize on this advantageous position, several key factors must be addressed. Proper scouting and recruitment, alongside the appointment of the right coach and Director of Football to replace Victor Orta, are crucial steps. Additionally, making a final decision on the 49ers Enterprise's buyout of owner Andrea Radrizzani will provide clarity and stability in the ownership structure. If Leeds can effectively address these in a timely manner, they are going to be in a very favorable position compared to the other clubs to get promoted in their initial attempt following relegation, benefiting from being in a stronger financial position and having fewer organizational strategy and culture issues to address.