The Premier League is NOT the Most Competitive in Europe’s Top 5 - Then Which Is?

Using data for the past 5 seasons, Europe’s Top 5 Leagues were statistically assessed in terms of competition. The Premier League is often referred to as the most competitive league in the world, with the other 4 often downplayed. However, based on multiple statistical metrics of competition that provide an objective perspective to this, the Premier League is not the most competitive. Before explaining the findings and analysis, the procedure and each metric will be explained.

League table data was compiled per league per season for the last 5 seasons starting from 2016-17 and ending with the 2020-21 season. The following were calculated and gathered per season for each league based on the final standings in the league tables:

The Excel table below shows the findings per league per metric for the past 5 seasons

on average and shows the rankings in order of leagues for each metric. Minimums are highlighted in green, while maximums are in red.

As can be seen on this scatter plot, the Bundesliga achieves the best overall metric between the two ratios and is followed by La Liga. The Bundesliga has the lowest ratio between the distances between the median and maximum and minimum points and between points earned by the top half vs bottom half. This is even after considering that the Bundesliga has less teams.

1. Bundesliga

2. La Liga

3. Ligue 1

4. Premier League

5. Serie A

In terms of the Competitive Balance Index, La Liga has the best score while Ligue 1 has the best score in terms of Skewness of Points.

1. Ligue 1

2. La Liga

3. Bundesliga

4. Premier League

5. Serie A

The Competitive Balance Index was used again here on the scatter plot against the % Of Total Possible League Points Gained Overall by all teams in each league. They were all very close as can be seen (displayed as a decimal on the scatter plot). However, La Liga is clearly 1st in terms of both while the Premier League is last.

1. La Liga

2. Ligue 1

3. Bundesliga

4. Serie A

5. Premier League

As written above, the difference between the averages and medians were calculated as the lower these are, would be the closer to 0. If the average and median were the same, there would be competitive balance however there isn’t. Therefore, the lower the difference between the two, the more competitive. The Bundesliga wins in two of the three categories while La Liga and Ligue 1 tie in the third.

1. Bundesliga

2. La Liga

3. Premier League

4. Ligue 1

5. Serie A

In the chart above, La Liga has the highest % of Games Drawn indicating more competitive while the Premier League has the lowest % which is interesting to note as the Premier League has the % of Wins which could possibly indicate a higher quality of football (which is difficult to measure and just a thought). It would also indicate more excitement and open games which is usually the thought around the Premier League. As a result of this, La Liga teams have the lowest % of possible points gained on average while the Premier League has the highest.

1. La Liga

2. Ligue 1

3. Bundesliga

4. Serie A

5. Premier League

These two scatter plots are focused on the difference between places between the teams in the leagues. The average difference between places was mapped out against the maximum difference between places and the difference between the first and last placed team. Again, this was all divided by the number of teams in the league to consider that the Bundesliga has 18 teams.

Based on the two together, La Liga and Ligue 1 both are the most competitive while the Bundesliga and Premier League are the least competitive. Serie A floats around the middle.

1. La Liga

2. Ligue 1

3. Serie A

4. Bundesliga

5. Premier League

As can be seen overall, depending on the metrics being used, the most competitive league is different. Consistently however, La Liga seems to be calculated as the most competitive league followed by Ligue 1 and then the Bundesliga. This comes as a surprise to many including myself – given the school of thought around the Premier League. However, numbers don’t lie. It is really difficult to measure this, and La Liga and Ligue 1 constantly came back as most competitive under most metrics. However, maybe the numbers do lie as there are a lot of on the field factors that are not reflected by league tables and final results of games such as the storyline/trends of games which may include and see: poor calls by referees, teams fighting to the death for a winning goal when tied only to concede, the QUALITY and excitement of football in which the Premier League may rank highest and more. However, based on these 5 seasons La Liga and Ligue 1 seem to be the closest in terms of competitive balance even if not necessarily at a higher quality and more exciting level of football than a league such as the Premier League.